PurpleNation

Doing some more looking around to see what the UIL could do with us. They could easily send us to play with Houston Spring Woods and Houston Madison. It's literally about the same distance as Barbers Hill, Port Arthur, College Station. They could leave the College Station schools in Central Texas. Leave Laporte, Port Arthur,Barbers Hill,Beaumont West Brook together. New Caney Porter is dropping down and Houston HISD is going to loose some schools to 5A D2. Maybe Lufkin and New Caney Porter can fill in. A few from 9-5A haven't turned in numbers yet but just looking at it. It's seems like a possible situation. They would have to do something with Galveston Ball. I bet the UIL is going to at least look at it

9-5A currently has two teams leaving. Wisdom turned in 6A numbers and Sterling turned in 5A D2 numbers. Spring Woods turned in 5A D1 numbers dropping them from 17-6A. The rest of that district hasn't turned in any numbers yet. But with the pre split divisions it leaves little wiggle room. You can either force us into the current Port Arthur district with those teams or force us with Houston ISD. It's essentially the same distance no matter what. Going to HISD would push us to Region 3.

Carl Padilla also reported that the 5A D1 and D2 split will be around 1860. That puts Huntsville really close to 5A D1. 

2 minutes ago, PackAttack said:

Big win IMO by Lancaster on a long road trip to LaPorte, the #1 seed from District 8-5A DI.  McKinney did not withstand the long ride 4 hr 45 min, 312 mile ride to Barbers Hill.  

I thought Barbers Hill was the best team in that district. Tough match-up for McKinney North. Not surprised Lancaster did what they did. They will be a tough out for anyone.

25 minutes ago, PackAttack said:

49-0 - 2nd quarter. NC Porter terrible team, they have not played anyone like Longview this year.

That 2nd commentator on that broadcast is all Lobo, he doesn't know as much as he thinks. You would think the Lobos had 10 State Titles listening to him. Had to turn the sound down, Porter not a good team.

All 7-5A teams are winning their games.

Yeah he's tough to listen to lol but  hey it's they broadcast. Kool laid it up.

18 minutes ago, Packfan49 said:

Longview already up 21 mid 1st , game, set match it,s over for New Caney.

42-0

9 minutes left in 2nd

59 minutes ago, timeout! said:

Would've been nice to see him used more this year. He has some size to him and can run. The original plan was to go with too big backs when the year started. Instead we replaced Gavin with a small scatback. When we had another guy with more size that could've help fill that role. Done trying to figure out these coaches. 

Chinn maxed out at 305 on the bench. He is going to play the H-Back role full time next season. He is the best blocking back we have. Gavin will be the lead back. This could shake up if Wallace moves back to Lufkin. His dad is supposed to sit down with him and discuss the situation. Wallace finished with 565 yards on 65 carries at Grand Oaks for his sophomore campaign. That's 8.9 ypc. He can also play in the slot and QB. 

2 hours ago, PackAttack said:

When you look at the enrollments above it's a mess for Lufkin any way you try to go.  For me to make any sense out of just the information we currently have is impossible until the U I L announces the cutoff numbers in December. With the State of our football program missing the playoffs three straight years, I don't see an advantage for us in any direction.  I realize the potential is again there for next year, but we had that potential this year too, so I'm not putting that on the table right now for consideration. 

Was watching this movie the other day and thought this scene fit perfectly for my current Panther football feelings, the aftermath of missing three seasons of playoffs, technically it's five seasons, with 1st round losses to Texas High 2019 and Longview, 41-5 in 2020. Might be graphically overstated a bit, " It's a mess, if it's not, it'll do 'till the mess gets here".  Lufkin fans being left with nothing again is getting old. How can one think about a one year surge NEXT YEAR? Well, next year is a long time off and there are no guarantees around here anymore.  Crazy to think we are now hoping for a one year perfect storm, to have one great year of football in 2024.  "Age will Flatten a Man" SMH

 

Good movie I watched it just a few weeks ago myself. 

4 hours ago, PackAttack said:

Here is what is out there on enrollment numbers both North and South and SW.

Although the Garland schools, Garland Lakeview-Centennial 2142, Garland Naaman Forrest 2089 and South Garland 1982 all have 5A DI numbers but are opting up to play 6A as they have in previous realignments. So they will be in a 6A district with Garland and North Garland.  They can not be considered in this equation,

As we have heard over 90% of the enrollment numbers are in to UIL.  We also need to know how the cut off levels will fluctuate on the Top 245-250 of the 6A ranks ( you have teams like the Garland schools and Duncanville or Desoto that would opt up to 6A, neither of those schools have turned in their enrollment) and if any compensations will be made at the 4A level. There are still teams like Longview 2280, that could slide either way. Make your own conclusions, it's still very early.

North:

Tyler 2101

North Mesquite 2099

West Mesquite 2083

Red Oak 2176

Waxahachie (6A 2022-2023) have not turned in numbers.

Texas High 1833 (again including these five just in case 4A adjust, UIL has not stated they are doing anything right now)

Crandall 1824

Seagoville 1830

Corsicana 1790

Ennis ??   Hasn't reported (1704 in 2022)

South:  (As you can see here there are plenty of teams available here to field a district without Lufkin.)

Barbers Hill 2092

Crosby 2097

New Caney Porter 2144

Humble Kingwood Park 1929 (2023 estimated)

Beaumont Westbrook 2232

Port Arthur Memorial  2118

Baytown Sterling 2130

LaPorte 2249

Angleton 2177

Southwest:

College Station 2209

A&M Consolidated 2176

Huntsville 1858 (list them as a reference only if UIL shifts 4A cutoffs)

More options for these guys towards Georgetown/Pflugerville/Kyle area. 

The odd thing is 4 of the six teams we play in our 16-5A baseball/basketball/softball/volleyball/soccer District have enrollments were considered to be 5A DII in football last realignment. Nacogdoches 1752, Dayton 1644, NC Porter 2144, Humble Kingwood Park 1874, Huntsville 1858 ( Note: None of the Humble ISD schools are listed as reported on DCTF site)

https://www.texasfootball.com/article/2023/10/25/2023-uil-snapshot-day-enrollment-figures?ref=article_preview_img

Funny they sent us south in basketball last realignment. Wonder if that is a clue looking forward. I just don't don't see how you can justify putting us in a Dallas district. Houston is just such an easier and shorter drive. 

1 hour ago, wolfpack4life said:

Would've sued (this absolutely  has to happen) and transferred schools personally. 

 

I don't think his family will but best believe I would have.

7 hours ago, PackAttack said:

I am looking at numbers North and South. It looks like with North and West Mesquite remaining 5A DI, then Tyler and Lufkin. That only leaves 3 more teams needed to fill out a district.  South is a different mix.  Looking at it and looking for other predictions out there too.

Oh God I hope not. Anywhere but Dallas. Maybe the can pair us up with College Station and Consolidated and send us with some Houston schools. With Highland Park dropping down maybe they try to insert us with the Dallas schools but only having Tyler might not be the best situation for that. Lufkin has to go south this realignment.

23 hours ago, PackAttack said:

2023 Lufkin football opponents going to the playoffs.

Texas City (9-1) vs. Huntsville (5-5), 7:00 Friday at Texas City’s Stingaree Stadium

Wylie East (9-1) vs. Tyler Legacy (3-7), 7:00 Friday at Wylie ISD Stadium

A&M Consolidated (7-3) vs. San Antonio Wagner (7-3), 7:00 Friday at College Station’s Tigerland Stadium

Add in Longview (9-1), Forney (9-1), McKinney North (7-3) and Lancaster (5-5).

That means 7 of the 11 teams Lufkin faced in 2023 made the playoffs

Combined SOS  record 45 -25 - .64%

 

Lufkin didn't have a bad loss.  The schedule won't be near this difficult to maneuver next season.

Any ideas where we go for realignment?

20 hours ago, Pack007 said:

Off-topic, but I feel bad for Gavin. His family posting on fb about what happened. 

He's back at school now. He will play on varsity basketball and be on the football team next year. But yeah it's wild what he went through. I would have sued somebody 

8 hours ago, LPPACK said:

  heh PA, sign Hudson up.The Hornets would give someone a run for their money.Lufkin people are moving out,not moving in.We will continue to shrink as long as we have friction and non-compliance at the higher levels. 9-12

Hudson not even good at basketball anymore 

2 hours ago, PackAttack said:

Carl Padilla, the Godfather of Texas high school football and creator of the Padilla Poll, is predicting 6A cutoff number to be 2265 based on the fact that 248 schools have turned in numbers greater than that number.....… so if his guess is correct, could be some good DFW 6A teams dropping to 5A DI.  

I personally believe the 5A DI cut off will be closer to 2235 - 2240. In fact they may not increase at all if the U I L adjust the top half of 4A down a bit to close the that disparity gap. UIL talks about it all the time but never seems to address it, because it would create a domino effect upward through 5A and 6A. 

Traditionally it has always been the top 245-250 6A schools to create the cut off for 5A DI. There is a disparity in 4A with big gaps between the top and bottom school enrollments in Div I and Div  II.  There is just no good way to address it.  Not sure even creating a 7A would help that much, which is not happening by the way. Neither are 6A DI and 6A DII districts happening, the 6A  superintendents voted that resolution down. 

It was 2224 cut off for 5A DI  last go around and the numbers rarely increase from one realignment to the next by more than 10-15 students.

I know DeSoto will opt up to 6A. That would be a bad 2 years for 5A D1 lol

8 minutes ago, Pack13 said:

I think defensively they will be. Problem with offense is the line. Who is blocking and will we see improvement? We didn’t win the line of scrimmage once this year. Tough district or not that’s concerning. 

I think with Jayvion he can hide more of those offensive line deficiencies and just the dynamics of having a QB that can score from anywhere on the field with his feet will force defenses into some hairy situations where they may have to come off a WR to make a play and that will leave guys open down field like on the big play against Forney this year when Jayvion found Kevondrick on a broken play. I'm not saying it's not going to be hard to watch at times but I think the big play potential will definitely be there. I think Preston has shown enough that next season he will unquestionably be the guy to get the ball to and a handful of other guys that are proven weapons at WR. As for RB I think a guy to watch is Chinn. He is a kid that is going to show up and work as hard as anyone you can ask. We should also get Gavin back next season. They may not be Kedren but both of those guys are good football players. I don't think the drop will be as big running the ball when you include the QB run game the offense will have next season. They won't take a step back offensively is what I'm saying. But the strength will be the defense next season. I know they struggled at times this year but they faced some legit offenses. Consolidated dropped 42 on College Station and they barely got to 17 on us. Held Lancaster to less points and big plays then Longview. They had moments they looked really good this year and some moments they struggled but once Murphy was inserted at LB they started to look a lot better at that position as a unit. So we know they're not taking a step back on that side next season. If anything they should be even better. With the way offense is played today all you can really do is ask your defense to hold teams to 17-21 ppg. Those are good numbers and they were not to far off that 21 this year and they faced some of the best offenses in 5A. 

I think everything is lining up for us to have one of those blip seasons as someone called it. I don't think this will be sustained success. I think it will be a perfect storm of them having a ton of experience returning more then we have had in a while with a group of SRs that have done nothing but win and expect to win. SR heavy teams with experience are dangerous in highschool football. 

I remember when we lost to Garland in 2003 in the first round and nobody thought we had much of a chance in 2004. I'm getting similar vibes from this group next year. Nobody is expecting them to do much.  I personally think they're in for a big season. The district won't have 4 Top 15 teams in it next year and I think most of you are underestimating that aspect of it. I don't think there was any other district in 5A where we wouldn't of made the playoffs. The only game they really didn't compete in was the Longview game and nobody outside of Forney competed with Longview this year. They had a chance to win every other game this year. I think they're a lot closer to being a really good team next year then people think. It's a long off season but this was always the year before the year for me. They're going to be good next season and I'm going to be able to tell you guys I told you so.

4 minutes ago, Pack13 said:

The question the becomes, will that matter, what development do we expect over the next 9 months, who steps up more on both lines?

That will be up to the kids at the end of the day. Put in what you get out. The off season workouts are tough from what my kid tells me. I really think it's up to the individual kid to put in the extra extra work. I'm really excited about this group next season. I think they have a chance to be really good next season. They're returning a bunch of kids that have done nothing but win in their class. 

10 hours ago, timeout! said:

We have seen this movie a million times and know how it ends. Lufkin in a competitive district prob misses the playoffs next year. I know this staff all too well. Green is losing his workhorse back, that he has leaned on for 3 years now. And still was unable to crack a playoff spot. So he won't have a get out of jail card. And I suspect will struggle getting the offense moving. Despite some of his flaws, TJ was a 3 year starter and worked hard at the position. Just wasn't always put in the best position to be successful. Johnson will have to take his lumps early on. I would feel better about him, if he had more meaningful playing time this year. In retrospect, he prob should've spent another year on JV getting some reps. A great off season could set him up for good year. I think it will take some time though. 

Breaking in those two positions alone will be a challenge. I think Lufkin could get a spot in a really weak district. Which really wouldn't mean much. If you facing a team from a really competitive district like the one we are in now. Best case scenario is prob one and done next year. I think the defense will be much improved. But you have to be able to score points at some point. Not sure the OL problems get fixed over the next year.

I think they will 100% make the playoffs next season. In reality a lot of good teams would have struggled to make the playoffs in this district. Of course the district is going to be weaker next season because there will be nothing close to this that would geographically be able to put together. They return a ton of starters and I think not having Kedren may actually open things up for the offense. I think we got carried away trying to feed him. They played toe to toe with some really good teams this year. Forney, Lancaster are Top 10 caliber teams and McKinney North was Top 15. I looking forward to next season. I think they will definitely be a factor to make a run.

10 hours ago, Favpack said:

After two plus decades of being a serious fan, last night was a reality check for me.  When I saw the score come up 27-21 in the 4th, I knew we weren't winning by 5 unless we finally got a freebie from someone or actually made a huge play in the 4th to win a close game.  Neither happened and I was already fast asleep.  Losing close games all the time is a sign of a failing program.  Next year the excuse will be we are too young and inexperienced.  Only appropriate we go 4 and out to end the game. Two district wins. 

    

They're going to return 16 starters next year. They will be as experienced team as we've had in a while. 

That was a dumbass personal foul penalty by the DB on the GL

Just now, LTown said:

Coach Green just messed the off 

That wasn't on Green 

That was bad. Stop trying to pull the ball

4 minutes ago, LufkinPack said:

What is Forney doing? JT all of a sudden is coming back 

Hopefully they haven't pulled the starters 

1 minute ago, LPanther said:

Lancaster secondary can be had. They are not going to let Young beat them, but there are plays to be made in the passing game. Pre snap penalties are killing the Panthers. 

Yeah just throw behind the blitz and keep feeding the flats and loosen then box. This game is on the table for Lufkin.

2 minutes ago, LufkinPack said:

Longview fans warned us about the clock operators, refs, etc. The clock is running a few seconds off even when we go out of bounds. Ridiculous. It was Good to see Booker out there playing. Defense looks good. Lancaster is talented and they are gonna get theirs. Can’t hold’Em down forever but the kids are busting their a$$. 

He's prepared all season. Next year will be his time. Just have to finish now. Need a TD to come out to start 2nd half.

Forney 33

Tyler 14

2nd